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click image for full size Other articles in Part 5 Current poverty trends likely to continue Tina Eoff's Second Chance Renters Program Program explores policy options New programs take aim at poverty What you can do to help

Current poverty trends likely to continue Welfare reform, service economy, income gap remain as issues story by Andy Duncan When you look at poverty in Oregon, what seems to be on the horizon? What's going to happen in the future? "The Poverty Puzzle," a publication prepared for the National Issues Forum (for more on this, see "Issues forum" on page 21), frames the issue this way: "The central questions are what we owe the poor, what kind of assistance helps them get back on their feet, and what we have a right to expect from the poor in return for the assistance they receive." One thing you can count on in the future is continued discussions over these kinds of fundamental questions. Economic changes that some say dwarf the efforts of individuals and even states and countries, such as rapidly evolving technology and industrial globalization, will complicate these discussions. In a more day-to-day, practical sense, most observers expect a continuation of welfare reform, with its emphasis on briskly ushering people who receive public assistance into the working world. "Our case load has gone from 44,000 families in 1994 to less than 18,000 today. People have gone to work and improved their lot," says Jim Neely, deputy administrator of the state's Department of Human Services, whose Adult and Family Services division administers Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF-what many people think of when they think of welfare). Private organizations working with poverty see more people coming to their doors for help and think welfare reform isn't working, Neely says, but they should give it a chance. "People have to reach the first rung," he says, "and that may be a low-paying job. They will have a chance to increase their incomes over time. Remaining on welfare guarantees they will remain below poverty." Collecting and analyzing data on the impact of welfare reform (which the state is doing) is going to be important in the years ahead. "Moving families off of welfare and into jobs is an important first step," says Sally Bowman, OSU Extension family development specialist, "but we know that a minimum wage job is not adequate to ensure self-sufficiency. It's important to track family income and well-being over time to know what additional supports families may need to maintain gainful employment and move into higher paying jobs." Kim Thomas, public policy manager for the Oregon Food Bank, is worried. "Oregon is haphazardly spending the savings from moving over 50 percent of the TANF recipients off the caseload. While some has gone into good things like childcare, much has disappeared to balance other budgets in state government. Very little support will be left if the economy changes and more families need help," she asserts. "There is no safety net left, except food stamps, and they only help the poorest of the poor if they're not immigrants or single adults without children. "I don't see government building back the safety net (like the cash assistance program), so we'll need to figure out ways to support low-wage work with supplemental programs (increased food stamps, child care support, transportation assistance, health care, etc.) or with major tax reform (increased earned income credits, child care credits or a negative income tax)." Thomas and others wonder how many Oregonians with good jobs, but lots of debts, are only a paycheck or two away from poverty. "What happens in a recession when even the low-wage jobs aren't there? Back to the New Deal of government-sponsored work programs?" she says. "No one's talking about when the bad times hit. Do we expect they'll never hit again?" Representatives of state government say Oregon has continued to spend its entire TANF allocation. "The TANF dollars that have not been spent on cash assistance have been spent on child care and JOBS program services," says Jim Neely, of the Department of Human Services. "Should a serious economic downturn cause more families to apply for cash assistance, money in those programs could be moved over to pay cash assistance." Setting TANF money aside for later contingencies is risky, Neely contends. "Last year Congress made a serious attempt to recoup from states most of the unobligated TANF funding," he says. "Because Oregon had obligated all of its TANF funds, it was not targeted for a funding reduction." No matter how the expansion and recession cycle plays out, many expect the general shift from a production to a service economy to continue. "This will add pressure to society's need for living-wage jobs," predicts Robert More, program director for Housing and Emergency Services of the Southwestern Oregon Community Action Committee, Inc. in Coos Bay. "Those employed at or near minimum-wage-I'd say at $7 an hour or less-are clearly 'at-risk.' For them to escape that situation, they will need to have the skills to compete at ever higher levels for a narrowing market of livable wage jobs. "Down here," he adds, "our production jobs have been going away for years. We've had an on-going discussion about what we can do to get additional living-wage jobs. Meanwhile what keeps opening up are fast-food restaurants, supply stores and service businesses like that." Many Oregonians were surprised, and disturbed, by a U.S. Department of Agriculture study released in October 1999. It showed that 12.6 percent of Oregon households are threatened by hunger, tying Oregon with Arkansas for the sixth highest percentage among states. The national average was 9.7 percent. The study also found that 5.6 percent of all Oregon households experience hunger on a regular basis, giving Oregon the worst ranking in the nation in that category. The findings appear to correspond with other developments, such as the Oregon Food Bank's 14 percent increase in demand for emergency food baskets last year. "People working at the food banks are seeing more and more, and they are feeling abandoned by government programs," says Mike Gibson of Linn-Benton (counties) Food Share. "Many of the people who work at food banks are elderly. They used to like the government. Now they are frustrated and feel the government is no longer doing its part. Another problem facing the food pantries is that for the most part they are run by elderly volunteers. When they retire they are not being replaced." Age figures into other thinking about poverty and the future. "One of the fastest-growing populations is people over 75," says Ellen Lowe, who retired recently as a lobbyist for Ecumenical Ministries of Oregon and chairs the Oregon Hunger Relief Task Force established by the Legislature. She also notes that many people seem to be retiring earlier and the first members of the country's huge "Baby Boom" generation are nearing retirement age. How well have they prepared economically? "Economic well being in late life requires the 'three-legged stool': public programs that create a base of income security and health care financing; effective pensions; and personal savings," says Clara Pratt, a professor of family policy at OSU. "I think in the future we will see more and more recognition of public policies that address this balance of responsibility. Unfortunately," she adds, "unless the funding issues around Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are addressed, the growing aging population will severely strain the current funding system for elder support, again making large numbers of elders vulnerable to late-life poverty." Pratt predicts poverty will continue to affect large numbers of young families unless education and job development efforts are concentrated on preparing young workers for living wage employment. "In the short run," she predicts, "the income inequality that has grown in the past 20 years will continue to plague us. One strategy to reduce this is to increase the incomes of families at the lower end of the scale, thus increasing the middle class. Another strategy is expansion of concern for whole communities, not only for our individual well being. This strategy will lead to increased community involvement, charitable giving, volunteerism, wage and taxation equity, and 'voluntary simplicity.' "Both strategies will be needed to reduce the further growth of poverty and income inequality and the negative consequences of poverty. Most families and individuals have done what they can. In the future we will have to address structural problems of poverty more aggressively," concludes Pratt. Other trends and their implications? Population projections for the state suggest ethnic diversity will continue to rise. That could increase poverty, based on current demographics, unless we find ways to reduce racism and discrimination and help minorities increase their economic success. Despite these types of concerns, and debate over how effective welfare reform will be in the long term, some are hopeful. "We haven't reduced poverty in Oregon but I see reasons for optimism," says Chuck Sheketoff, director of the private Oregon Center for Public Policy in Silverton. He points to Oregon voters raising the minimum wage and passing a cigarette tax to fund the Oregon Health Plan, and bipartisan political support for the Oregon Health Plan. Are these actions evidence of a new resolve? A choice by Oregonians to use public policy and private energy and resources more aggressively to reduce poverty in the state? Only time, of course, will tell.   Article 1 of 5 in Part 5   back to top

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