The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) is an invasive insect pest that has been spreading rapidly across the United States since its initial detection in Pennsylvania in 2014. It feeds on more than 70 plant species, including grapes, apples, hops and hardwood trees — crops and natural resources that are vital to Oregon’s economy and communities.
In addition to causing direct feeding damage, the spotted lanternfly produces a sugary substance that promotes mold growth, further weakening plants and reducing yields. In Pennsylvania, the pest has caused nearly $200 million in losses each year.
This work reflects the Oregon IPM Center’s mission to provide decision-support tools that help producers, natural resource managers and policymakers act before problems escalate.
The spotted lanternfly is not present or established in Oregon. However, in May, the Oregon Department of Agriculture was notified of a possible sighting submitted through iNaturalist, which showed what appeared to be an early stage spotted lanternfly nymph at Colonel Summers Park in Portland.
No additional signs of the insect were found, and the sighting remains unconfirmed but state and federal agencies will continue to monitor the area. If the spotted lanternfly becomes established in Oregon, it could disrupt vineyards, fruit orchards and forests that support rural communities and export markets.
Researchers in the Oregon Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Center in the College of Agricultural Sciences at Oregon State University are working to help prevent this outcome. They developed a model to forecast the insect’s seasonal development and survival across the contiguous United States. These forecasts provide insight into where and when to expect the spotted lanternfly.
The team built the model for use in the Degree-Day, Establishment Risk, and Phenological Event Maps platform, an open-source tool designed at Oregon State. Researchers validated predictions against field data and community-science observations to ensure accuracy. The study was published in the journal Insects.
Near real-time forecasts produced by the model are now available through the USA National Phenology Network. The maps show when lanternfly eggs are likely to hatch and when adults will emerge.
The forecasts provide:
- Surveillance support. Agencies and growers can time monitoring activities more effectively.
- Targeted control. Forecasts help reduce costs and unnecessary pesticide use by guiding when to act.
- Preparedness. By highlighting regions at high risk of establishment, the tool strengthens early detection and rapid response.
The research was led by Brittany Barker, assistant research professor in the OSU Department of Horticulture and the Oregon IPM Center; Len Coop, associate professor of practice in the OSU Department of Horticulture and associate director of the Oregon IPM Center; and Jules Beyer, a recent OSU graduate and research assistant intern in the Oregon IPM Center.
This work reflects the Oregon IPM Center’s mission to provide decision-support tools that help producers, natural resource managers and policymakers act before problems escalate.
The research was funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), including an Agriculture and Food Research Initiative grant (no. 2022-68013-37138) and a Crop Protection and Pest Management Extension Implementation Program grant (no. 2021-70006-35581).
Additional funding came from the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (contract no. RC23-3611).
